Game chances and randomness

[Reporter]

Hello !

Many of you are asking / complaining about the chances in the game. I would like to explain how these are working.

For example, you want to create Wings level 2 at the Chaos Goblin in Noria, you already have the items, you place them into the Goblin's "hands", and it shows you a rate of let's say 80%. This 80 per cent is a decent rate for a chaos combination, compared to the rate of feather of condor, wings level 3, or upgrading an item to +15. Still you can get like 10 fails in a row with this 80% chance. This is because the computer can not generate the true randomness, but it has a smart way to "randomize" the chances. First of all, you have to know that when you see an 80% chance, this chance is took out of 10000. The sample is 10000, so you are guaranteed to obtain 2000 fails out of 10000 tries.

Now, how the computer / game decides if it is a fail or not ? Just like I said, there is no true randomness in computers, at least not yet, and the computer uses his X-bit clock to generate the randomness. When you hit the "combine" button, the computer takes as input the current hour: 10[hour] : 30[minute] : 25[second] : 13[millisecond]. Well, his input and randomizing value will be the milliseconds, or even a smaller division in some cases. The system will always give you 2000 fails out of 10000 tries at the end of the day, no matter in which order. The way you can test it yourself is to go on test-server and make the same combination for at least 50-100 times and note down results. While the sample is very low, it will give you some insights about the rate. But the higher the sample is (more tries) the higher the accuracy is. 

The clock thing took as input happens like everywhere, in chaos machine like I said, in chances for hitting critical damages or ignore, luck, and so on, and not only in MU online, but in most random codes made by devs.

Now, the sample of 10000 is what is unique in MU, so basically with a chance of 99%, you can still have 100 fails in a row, but I guess this won't happen, or if this happens, go to lottery that day!

Some of you may say that ADMIN didn't put the real rates showing, but why he would ever 'lie' to his players without any reason? Some of you may remember the good old times when wings level 3 had 100% success rate. I doubt ADMIN would ever be shy to show you true rates no matter how high or low they are, taking into account his mentality.

And btw, the same sample applies to all players, not for each one. 

Hope I helped with this article, have a wonderful day, oldsquaders !