Chaos machine improvement

[teamer]

Hello.  

I know that most players use credits to upgrade items up to +12. But I want to ask - has anyone tried to improve items (+ 10 / + 11 / + 12 ...) using a chaos machine?

I tried only three times (2 wings and staff with perfect options). All three times the chaos machine showed that the chance of success was 90% and all three times I received 10% (failure). Two times were in a row.
In addition, I failed 3 times in a row with an 80% chance of success (ds tickets), and even 1 time there was a failure with 100% success when I tried to make chaos a weapon.

Am I the only one unsuccessful on this server or are there brothers in misfortune ?

 

 

[salam]

Hi, keep in mind that statistically, each roll is an individual event, not tied to previous events. Think about it like a dice roll. Having previously rolled a 1, for example, doesn't reduce your chances for another 1 on your next roll (it will be 1/6). It might be frustrating to fail 2 consecutive times, but it's definitely a statistical probability.

Fun fact: some games use a pseudo-random RNG, in this exact purpose: to avoid frustration from players. In one of the MoBAs (can't remember which), you are basically guaranteed a crit hit, according to your crit chance. For example, you have a 25% chance for a critical hit. If you hit a regular hit 3 times in a row, the 4th hit is guaranteed to be critical. This doesn't happen in Mu

 

That being said, you can only verify the corectness of the rates precisely by having a large amount of rolls. The larger the data sample, the smaller the margin of error is (more precise mean/average). Your best bet to do that is see the logs, or test a large number of rolls on test server.

 

LE: i can't link the precise article now, but there is a psychological effect to evaluating random events, where you are more likely to remember statistical anomalies (for example your case, with 3 consecutive fails), and disregard the larger amount of events that are in the normal statistical deviation (because they seem normal).

[Gion]

20 minutes ago, salam said:

Hi, keep in mind that statistically, each roll is an individual event, not tied to previous events. Think about it like a dice roll. Having previously rolled a 1, for example, doesn't reduce your chances for another 1 on your next roll (it will be 1/6). It might be frustrating to fail 2 consecutive times, but it's definitely a statistical probability.

Fun fact: some games use a pseudo-random RNG, in this exact purpose: to avoid frustration from players. In one of the MoBAs (can't remember which), you are basically guaranteed a crit hit, according to your crit chance. For example, you have a 25% chance for a critical hit. If you hit a regular hit 3 times in a row, the 4th hit is guaranteed to be critical. This doesn't happen in Mu

 

That being said, you can only verify the corectness of the rates precisely by having a large amount of rolls. The larger the data sample, the smaller the margin of error is (more precise mean/average). Your best bet to do that is see the logs, or test a large number of rolls on test server.

 

LE: i can't link the precise article now, but there is a psychological effect to evaluating random events, where you are more likely to remember statistical anomalies (for example your case, with 3 consecutive fails), and disregard the larger amount of events that are in the normal statistical deviation (because they seem normal).

Hi. Your explaining was good, but this thing, it does happen in MU, with the only notice that the numbers used as reference are very high. Like, if you see a chance of 90%, the game will understand that out  of 10000(10 thousands) combinations, 9000 will be successful, 1000 failed. And it can happen in a row, like these first 1000 combinations will fail, even with 90 % chance.

8 hours ago, teamer said:

Hello.  

I know that most players use credits to upgrade items up to +12. But I want to ask - has anyone tried to improve items (+ 10 / + 11 / + 12 ...) using a chaos machine?

I tried only three times (2 wings and staff with perfect options). All three times the chaos machine showed that the chance of success was 90% and all three times I received 10% (failure). Two times were in a row.
In addition, I failed 3 times in a row with an 80% chance of success (ds tickets), and even 1 time there was a failure with 100% success when I tried to make chaos a weapon.

Am I the only one unsuccessful on this server or are there brothers in misfortune ?

 

 

About the fail with 100% rate, I will check this 

[teamer]

This game client is a reworking of the original. No wonder that the client can and contains bugs or mechanics that may not work correctly. Why bugs or problems can not be with chaos machine ? Or its not part of the game that have bugs ? Moreover, client developers worked with the chaos machine (increasing the chances of a VIP player, decreasing chances for wings crafting etc)

Chaos machines have hidden chances of success. That's why even having a 100% chance of success to create chaow weapon, i got a fail. Its fact, not imagination. I tried to use rare mechanics 3 times (not vip acc, improve from 9 to 10) and was confused by results. I asked about other players - has anyone ever tried to improve items from 9 to 10 who tried this - silence. Ok. 

I can accept the fact that I was just very unlucky, but on the basis of what ? No one came to the topic, who would say "I am not a VIP, I tried to do the same thing 20 times and ~ 15 times it was successful."

Sad

[Support]

So far have only failed once in cm I made 8 chaos weapons 90% I then made 6 w1 at 70/90% my pt then has made 4 w2 and 1 cape not sure of % as was done via my party members. 

In saying that on the 50rr server I burned 34 attempts at w3 but only failed like 3 times making feathers for w3. 

[ADMIN]

12 hours ago, teamer said:

This game client is a reworking of the original. No wonder that the client can and contains bugs or mechanics that may not work correctly. Why bugs or problems can not be with chaos machine ? Or its not part of the game that have bugs ? Moreover, client developers worked with the chaos machine (increasing the chances of a VIP player, decreasing chances for wings crafting etc)

Chaos machines have hidden chances of success. That's why even having a 100% chance of success to create chaow weapon, i got a fail. Its fact, not imagination. I tried to use rare mechanics 3 times (not vip acc, improve from 9 to 10) and was confused by results. I asked about other players - has anyone ever tried to improve items from 9 to 10 who tried this - silence. Ok. 

I can accept the fact that I was just very unlucky, but on the basis of what ? No one came to the topic, who would say "I am not a VIP, I tried to do the same thing 20 times and ~ 15 times it was successful."

Sad

No offense but it's like you're playing MU for the first time, or at least using a chaos machine for the first time. For a 90% chance, from 10.000 mixes 1000 will fail, no matter who you are or what you tried before, 1000 will fail at the level of server, and it can be 10 fails in a row or 100 success in a row. Why you don't see ppl crying? Simple, because from let's say 100 players with 1000 mixes, statistically only around 5-8 players will experience fails (so will cry) and the rest 92-95 will have them succeed so no reason to cry or speak about fails.

Client rate showing - yes, I already stated that some times what client rate is showing is different from the real rate (VIP rates for examples, or you chaos weapon rate), that's why all OFFICIAL rates are written at chaos machine info, not client.

You want to see the success of mixes at the level of server? Sure, I can provide from logs all the mixes that are succeeding and all the mixes that are failed, including their rates.

Want to test it yourself? Simple, go on test server and do 100 mixes with 90% chance, then write down your results for each of them and come again.

Gambling is not for everyone that is emotional sensitive. If you can't handle gambling don't do it, let others do it for you and reward them for doing so. (buy the mixed items, in this case)

 

[teamer]

4 hours ago, ADMIN said:

No offense but it's like you're playing MU for the first time, or at least using a chaos machine for the first time. For a 90% chance, from 10.000 mixes 1000 will fail, no matter who you are or what you tried before, 1000 will fail at the level of server, and it can be 10 fails in a row or 100 success in a row. Why you don't see ppl crying? Simple, because from let's say 100 players with 1000 mixes, statistically only around 5-8 players will experience fails (so will cry) and the rest 92-95 will have them succeed so no reason to cry or speak about fails.

 

 

Thanks for reply.

A situation happened to me when probably anyone would have doubted the correctness of what is happening.
For example :  If you lose 3 times out of 3 in an online casino, with chances of 90% EACH TIME, and once even at 100%, I am sure that your words about probabilities will not satisfy you be you in my place. 

 

4 hours ago, ADMIN said:

Client rate showing - yes, I already stated that some times what client rate is showing is different from the real rate (VIP rates for examples, or you chaos weapon rate), that's why all OFFICIAL rates are written at chaos machine info, not client.

No any words about chaos weapon 

• Wings lvl 1: 1-90% (90% max rate).
• Wings lvl 2: 1-90% (90% max rate).
• Wings lvl 3: 1-40% (40% max rate).

 

5 hours ago, ADMIN said:

If you can't handle gambling don't do it, let others do it for you and reward them for doing so.

I m playing in MU more than 10 years, so i m ok with gambling. Its first time when i stopped playing on server (best server what i ve played), because my mind tells me that it shouldn't be like that. And It does not matter where it is - the game in MU, another game or the like occurs in real life. 

 

5 hours ago, ADMIN said:

Why you don't see ppl crying? Simple, because from let's say 100 players with 1000 mixes, statistically only around 5-8 players will experience fails (so will cry) and the rest 92-95 will have them succeed so no reason to cry or speak about fails.

What is the basis of your statement ? is it just thoughts ?

 

5 hours ago, ADMIN said:

Want to test it yourself? Simple, go on test server and do 100 mixes with 90% chance, then write down your results for each of them and come again.

I am ready to test, but problems with calculations could arise due to some conditions that are not and will not be on the test server. This is a common situation when developers, in their sandboxes, everything is fine, and in combat conditions there are problems / bugs.

I have suspicions about which I said, if you help dispel them to me - I will be overly grateful to you.

Thank you for the detailed answer.